Santa Cruz is famous for Steamer Lane and its cold water surf, but a new study led by Save the Waves Coalition shows just how much those waves are worth and how climate change could wipe out a big chunk of that value.

Researchers found that surfing brings in at least $194.7 million a year to the local economy, with about $44.5 million of that coming from visitor trips and another $150.2 million tied to spending on boards, gear, repairs, lessons, and services.

The numbers add up fast: roughly 783,000 surf sessions take place annually across the 31 breaks that make up the Santa Cruz World Surfing Reserve.

That’s quite impressive, but sea level rise is set to change that picture.

Right now, 10 of those breaks are surfable more than half the daylight hours in a year, and only two are rarely surfable.

With one foot of sea level rise, surfability across the reserve drops nearly 30 percent, leaving only seven breaks surfable more than half the time and two breaks almost completely lost.

At two feet, the picture is worse – no breaks keep more than 50 percent surfability, and five become rarely surfable or vanish.

Push it to three feet, and overall surfability crashes by 77 percent, with 20 of the 31 breaks nearly gone and only 11 offering rideable waves a quarter of the time.

That translates into annual losses of $34.5 million in recreational value if seas climb three feet, with losses showing up in stages.

Putting figures into words, that’s about $12.8 million at one foot, $12.6 million more at two feet, and another $9.1 million at three feet.

Long-Term Solutions Are a Trade-Off

The study also looked at different ways to respond.

Rock revetments, the common “armoring” method, turned out to be the worst option for waves, while vertical seawalls helped a little only in very limited situations.

Sand management – moving and adding sand – can stretch surfability under moderate sea level rise, but beyond two to three feet, it starts to lose its power.

The strongest long-term option is managed retreat, meaning removing seawalls and letting the shoreline shift naturally, which keeps waves rideable for longer.

That may be tough for property owners to swallow, but the data shows it’s the best shot at saving the breaks.

And that’s what World Surfing Reserves do. They protect natural resources and local economies as a whole and in the long run.

More Inclusion Needed

The report also highlights that access to Santa Cruz surf isn’t equal.

Surfers from black, indigenous, and other communities of color face barriers – economic, cultural, and safety-related – that limit how often they get in the water.

Local groups like Black Surf Santa Cruz are working to address that, and the researchers made a point to include those perspectives.

What comes through clearly is that waves here are more than recreation or scenery. They truly are an economic engine, a cultural marker, and a way of life for many people.

And with climate change creeping higher up the beach, the decisions Santa Cruz makes now about how to handle its coastline will ripple far beyond the lineup.

This is why surfonomics matters to coastal regions around the world.

Having an integrated perspective on the impact surfing has on local economies helps decision-makers take the necessary measures to optimize and balance the residents’ quality of life.

Words by Luís MP | Founder of SurferToday.com